Mortgage Rate Intelligence & Market Updates

Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning’s levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher–a small enough move to be effectively considered “unchanged.”  This expanded to 0.05% in the last few hours as multiple lenders increased rates. In terms of big-picture benchmarks, the increase officially brings rates to their highest levels since early 2025. To be clear, we were just barely lower than May 2025 levels yesterday. Now we’re in line February 2025 levels. The intraday market movement was interesting. The bond market (which underlies mortgage rate movement) actually improved this morning even though Fed rate hike expectations increased following a slightly hotter inflation reading in this morning’s economic data. This is an uncommon pattern. There are two ways to look at it. First, longer-term rates may have been encouraged by the uptick in Fed rate hike expectations because that provided reassurance that Fed was more likely to take steps to combat higher inflation. In other words, some of the upward pressure in longer-term rates is thought to have been driven by fear of Fed inaction. If this morning’s inflation data was hot enough to increase the odds of action, but not so hot as to cause a material change in the inflation outlook, it’s the perfectly warm bowl of porridge. In OTHER other words, yes! There’s a scenario where longer-term rates (things like mortgages and 5-10yr Treasury yields) actually WANT the shortest-term rates (like the Fed Funds Rate) to move higher.

Existing-home sales slipped in August, falling below the 4 million annualized pace for the first time since June 2025, while a sharp increase in inventory gave buyers more options and pushed the supply of homes to its highest level in more than a decade. The National Association of REALTORS® reported a 2.0% decline in sales from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million , while sales were 1.2% lower than a year earlier. “Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it’s not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that sales are still 1.6% higher year-to-date through the first eight months of the year, with wage growth and job creation helping to support demand despite elevated borrowing costs. Inventory provided a more encouraging development for buyers. Total housing inventory rose to 1.62 million units , up 3.2% from July and 5.9% from a year ago. It was the first time since November 2019 that inventory exceeded 1.6 million units. The increase in supply pushed the market to a 4.9-month supply , up from 4.6 months in both July and August 2025. Yun noted that the current level is the highest in more than ten years and should give buyers more room to negotiate. Despite higher inventory, home prices continued to climb, although the pace of appreciation remained modest. The median existing-home price increased to $429,100 , up 1.6% from August 2025 and marking the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Mortgage application activity pulled back last week, with a sharp decline in refinancing more than offsetting relatively stable purchase demand as mortgage rates moved higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending September 4. Purchase applications were little changed, slipping just 0.2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. On an unadjusted basis, purchase activity fell 3%, but remained 4% higher than the same week one year ago, earning it’s spot as the one positive note for this week’s report. Refinancing was a different story. The Refinance Index fell 6% from the previous week and was 25% below year-ago levels, reaching its slowest weekly pace since May 2025. Refinances also accounted for a smaller portion of overall mortgage activity, with the refinance share falling to 40.9% from 41.8% the previous week. Notably, this data was collected before this week’s sharpest rate spikes, so this trend will likely accelerate next week. “Mortgage rates moved higher last week, driven by ongoing investor concerns over inflation and the federal budget deficit,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Kan noted that the 30-year fixed rate reached 6.85%, its highest level since June 2025 and 36 basis points above the same time last year.

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Find out whether or not you should renovate your kitchen before selling your home and tips to help you along the way.

The post Should You Renovate Your Kitchen Before Selling? appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More.

Dahl, a 23-year IRES veteran, succeeds Jeff Bosch as he departs for Arizona Regional MLS

Most of us 30 years old and older have tales about where they were and what they did 25 years ago. Being in capital markets, and selling MBS, for over 40 years, I knew people who died in New York that day. That said, as an industry, we’re very good at looking forward to, and planning for, the future. Minority home ownership is something every major lender is witnessing. For example, on Monday, September 14, NAHREP and the Hispanic Wealth Project will unveil the 2026 State of Hispanic Wealth Report on Latino economic progress. More than 1.2 million Hispanic households have reached millionaire status, with total Hispanic household wealth more than tripling since 2014. Hispanic households drove all net U.S. homeownership growth in 2025, reaching a record 10.2 million owner-households; real estate remains the largest pillar of Hispanic wealth at 45.5 percent. “For the first time, the report devotes a full section to the risks federal policy changes from the current Administration pose to this progress.” (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by NFTYDoor, the MLO’s favorite HELOC platform. A broad buy box and hands-on mortgage expertise mean more loans close, faster, for banks, credit unions, and brokers. Clean files close in as little as zero days. Today’s has an interview with Agile’s Greg Vacura on connecting mortgage lenders and broker-dealers to make MBS trading faster, more efficient, transparent, and less reliant on phone-based processes.)