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Mortgage Rate Intelligence & Market Updates

Stay informed about economic developments that may influence mortgage rates and home financing decisions. Explore updates covering inflation, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, housing trends, and other important market indicators. Use the category filters to browse relevant economic and mortgage news, then select an article to read the full update. Review the latest stories and market insights to better understand changing conditions when considering your mortgage options.
RATE WATCH
FED FUNDS RATE 3.88%
NEXT FOMC 10/28/2026
NEXT MOVE 28.4% HIKE
IMPLIED CHANGE +7.1 bps
12-MONTH OUTLOOK +81.7 bps 3 or 4 hikes
TARGET BAND 3.75 - 4.00%
SOFR 3.87%
LATEST FED UPDATE 10/5/2026

What Today’s Economic Data Can Mean for Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates can respond to changes in inflation, employment, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, and expectations about future economic growth. These factors do not determine mortgage rates by themselves, but they can influence the broader bond market and the pricing lenders offer.

For homebuyers and homeowners, the important question is not simply whether economic news is “good” or “bad.” The key is how new information changes expectations for inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Those changes can contribute to mortgage rate movement and affect purchasing power, refinance opportunities, and monthly payment estimates.

Use the market updates below as supporting information, then consider your specific loan type, credit profile, property, and financing goals when evaluating current mortgage options.

Economic News Hub

Real Estate & Financial Market Updates

Article
New home construction with architectural plans, rising costs chart, stacked coins, and calculator

When pricing power disappears, builders have to find margin upstream

As incentives and input costs squeeze homebuilder margins, controlling product complexity earlier can create another lever for protecting profitability
Mortgage professional portrait beside a suburban home, desk, and computer illustration

Stockton Mortgage elevates founder David Stockton to CEO, names new president

Anthony Whiteside becomes president, while Scott Bristol joins as EVP of national sales
Mortgage news graphic listing Jumbo ARM, compliance, AVM, borrower tools, and California MBA topics

Jumbo ARM, Compliance, AVM, Borrower Mining Tools; Fairway’s Steve Jacobson Interview; California MBA’s Advocacy

Time flies. The last day of the third quarter. We just wrapped up Fat Bear Week 2026 in Alaska. (Congrats to Backpack.) Ringo Starr is 86 years old, and doing…
Mortgage market graphic showing PCE inflation, bond yields, mortgage rates, and a suburban home

Lower PCE Inflation, So Why Aren’t Bonds Happier?

Core PCE came in at 0.2 vs a 0.3 forecast, and the bond market rallied a bit in response. That said, the unrounded number was .247, which about as high…
How to Choose the Right Real Estate Agent in 10 Steps

How to Choose the Right Real Estate Agent in 10 Steps

How to Choose a Real Estate Agent in 10 Steps Choosing the right real estate agent can make or break your home buying or selling experience. If you’re buying, a…
The Role of Repos in Monetary Policy Implementation

The Role of Repos in Monetary Policy Implementation

Gara Afonso, Jun-Davinci Choi, Gonzalo Cisternas, and Will Riordan In the first two posts of this three-part series, we discussed private market participants that are active in repo markets for…
Hand placing a wooden building among miniature homes

The ROAD to Housing Act: The latest milestone in the history of American public housing

With 860,000 public housing units remaining, Congress locks in RAD authorization and extends its reach as investment totals $28.4 billion
Credit score gauge illustrating that borrowers may have multiple credit scores

You may not just have one credit score

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now allow VantageScore 4.0 as an alternative to Classic FICO for eligible loans
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Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped

Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped

Bonds spent the first half of the day pressing into even weaker levels in spite of a respectable drop in oil prices. Data and headlines had little to no bearing on the selling. If anything, the biggest scapegoat is the combination of bearish momentum and quarter-end trading (something we’re extrapolating from the mirror-image correlation between stocks and bond yields). 10yr yields crested 5.29% at their weakest levels–right in line with the only obvious nearby technical level from 2007. Bearishness reversed at 2pm when Fed Gov Williams said he didn’t see a need for urgency after the September rate hike. Fed Funds Futures rallied quickly and the entire yield curve (apart from 30yr bonds) ended up making it back to positive territory by the close. 

Econ Data / Events

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jul)

2.5% vs 2.2% f’cast, 2.1% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jul)

0.3% vs 0.1% f’cast, 0% prev

CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)

81.9 vs 89.2 f’cast, 89.4 prev

USA JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)

7.079M vs 7.23M f’cast, 7.271M prev

Market Movement Recap

08:58 AM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down less than 1bp at 5.231

10:05 AM Heavy selling between 9:30am and 10am. Bouncing modestly after 10am data. MBS down over an eighth and 10yr up 1.1bps at 5.25

02:26 PM MBS down a quarter point, but well off the weakest levels after Williams’ comments implying no urgent need for additional rate hikes. 10yr still up 2.6bps at 4.267

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