Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification
10yr yields hit another long-term high today, breaking above 5.30% briefly before settling just under 5.29%. There was a flash of hope after the 8:30am econ data, but that reversed fairly quickly. Reasons can be debated. Some would say today’s broadly stronger econ data supported it while pointing out that the “beat” in PCE wasn’t really news in light of the methodology changes. On that note, some might say methodology that drops core PCE by 0.361 (July vs July unrounded) means that Fed policy will be less aggressive in fighting inflation than it otherwise would have been. In that context, today’s heavy underperformance in the long end of the curve actually makes good sense, but it’s just an interesting theory to entertain. Month/Quarter-end compulsory trading could certainly be an ingredient, but there’s no great way to confirm that until several days in the future. Either way, inbound econ data certainly matters on Thu/Fri and the radar perpetually awaits any big blips shaped like Iran war truces (or escalations).
Econ Data / Events
ADP jobs (Sep)
90K vs 70K f’cast, 38K prev
Core PCE (m/m) (Aug)
0.2% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.2% prev
Core PCE (y/y) (Aug)
3.0% vs 3.3% f’cast, 3.3% prev
Core PCE Prices QoQQ2
3.30% vs 3.6% f’cast, 4.4% prev
Corporate profitsQ2
7.7% vs 8.2% f’cast, 0.5% prev
GDPQ2
2.2% vs 1.5% f’cast, 2.1% prev
GDP Final SalesQ2
2.8% vs 2.2% f’cast, 1.9% prev
PCE (y/y) (Aug)
3.4% vs 3.7% f’cast, 3.7% prev
PCE prices (m/m) (Aug)
0.3% vs 0.4% f’cast, 0.2% prev
Market Movement Recap
10:36 AM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and a quarter point from highs. 10yr up 2.4bps at 5.269
02:19 PM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5.4bps at 5.299
