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Mortgage Rate Intelligence & Market Updates

Stay informed about economic developments that may influence mortgage rates and home financing decisions. Explore updates covering inflation, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, housing trends, and other important market indicators. Use the category filters to browse relevant economic and mortgage news, then select an article to read the full update. Review the latest stories and market insights to better understand changing conditions when considering your mortgage options.
RATE WATCH
FED FUNDS RATE 3.88%
NEXT FOMC 10/28/2026
NEXT MOVE 28.4% HIKE
IMPLIED CHANGE +7.1 bps
12-MONTH OUTLOOK +83.0 bps 3-4 HIKES
TARGET BAND 3.75 - 4.00%
SOFR 3.89%
LATEST FED UPDATE 10/6/2026

What Today’s Economic Data Can Mean for Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates can respond to changes in inflation, employment, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, and expectations about future economic growth. These factors do not determine mortgage rates by themselves, but they can influence the broader bond market and the pricing lenders offer.

For homebuyers and homeowners, the important question is not simply whether economic news is “good” or “bad.” The key is how new information changes expectations for inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Those changes can contribute to mortgage rate movement and affect purchasing power, refinance opportunities, and monthly payment estimates.

Use the market updates below as supporting information, then consider your specific loan type, credit profile, property, and financing goals when evaluating current mortgage options.

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Real Estate & Financial Market Updates

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Firms’ Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels
  • Mar 04, 2026
  • New York Fed – Liberty Street Economics
  • Rates, Fed & Economy

Firms’ Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano Businesses experienced substantial cost pressures in 2025 as the cost of insurance and utilities rose sharply, while an increase in tariffs contributed…
Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth?
  • Mar 04, 2026
  • New York Fed – Liberty Street Economics
  • Rates, Fed & Economy

Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth?

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano Employer-sponsored health insurance represents a substantial component of total compensation paid by firms to many workers in the United States. Such costs…
What’s Driving Rising Business Costs?
  • Mar 04, 2026
  • New York Fed – Liberty Street Economics
  • Mortgage & Lending

What’s Driving Rising Business Costs?

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano After a period of moderating cost increases, businesses faced mounting cost pressures in 2025. While tariffs played a role in driving up…
The Post‑Pandemic Global R*
  • Feb 25, 2026
  • New York Fed – Liberty Street Economics
  • Mortgage & Lending

The Post‑Pandemic Global R*

Marco Del Negro, Elena Elbarmi, and Michael Pham In this post we provide a measure of “global” r* using data on short- and long-term yields and inflation for several countries…
Estimating the Term Structure of Corporate Bond Risk Premia
  • Feb 24, 2026
  • New York Fed – Liberty Street Economics
  • Rates, Fed & Economy

Estimating the Term Structure of Corporate Bond Risk Premia

Tomas Jankauskas Understanding how short- and long-term assets are priced is one of the fundamental questions in finance. The term structure of risk premia allows us to perform net present…
What Workplace Composition Are Job Candidates Looking For?
  • Feb 19, 2026
  • New York Fed – Liberty Street Economics
  • Mortgage & Lending

What Workplace Composition Are Job Candidates Looking For?

Rachel Schuh Why do workers still segregate by sex across occupations, industries, and firms? Recent research has focused on how preferences for job amenities, like flexibility, may differ by sex….
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data
  • Feb 17, 2026
  • New York Fed – Liberty Street Economics
  • Mortgage & Lending

Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data

Martin Almuzara and Geert Mesters Data releases for inflation have been scarce over the past four months due to the government shutdown. As a result, until January 22 no personal…
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?
  • Feb 12, 2026
  • New York Fed – Liberty Street Economics
  • Mortgage & Lending

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?

Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this…
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The Ultimate Final Walk-Through Checklist Before Closing on a Home

The Ultimate Final Walk-Through Checklist Before Closing on a Home

September 9, 2026 No Comments
Beautiful exterior of home waiting for a final walk-through, checklist is the best way to make sure you're covered

You’ve nearly completed the entire homebuying process. From those early days of using a mortgage calculator to see how much house you could afford, to touring homes online or in-person, and then finally making an offer on your first home. Now here you are, the home inspection is complete, your bank’s appraiser has submitted their […]

The post The Ultimate Final Walk-Through Checklist Before Closing on a Home appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More.

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Jackson Hole: Exploring the Financial Frontier

Jackson Hole: Exploring the Financial Frontier

September 3, 2026 No Comments

After two days of heady discussions with academics and policymakers from around the world in high-altitude Jackson Hole, Wyoming, I’m now decompressing back at Street Level. The main theme of this year’s Kansas City Fed symposium was financial innovation in the payments space—a fast-evolving topic with major implications for consumers and central bankers alike. In this post, I’ll share some general takeaways from those Jackson Hole talks and highlight related New York Fed research on payments and financial intermediation.

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Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets?

Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets?

September 2, 2026 No Comments

The dollar’s share of global official foreign exchange reserves fell from 64 percent in 2015 to 56 percent in 2025. This downward trajectory is sometimes read as evidence that the dollar’s role in international financial markets is eroding. However, aggregate statistics obscure the composition of changes occurring at the country level. In this post, we show that the aggregate decline is not a systematic global shift away from dollar assets. Rather, the aggregate decline reflects the actions of a handful of large reserve holders, changing either their currency preferences or the size of their reserve portfolio. From the perspective of the cross section of countries holding dollar assets, the dollar’s status in official portfolios is largely intact.

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