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Mortgage Rate Intelligence & Market Updates

Stay informed about economic developments that may influence mortgage rates and home financing decisions. Explore updates covering inflation, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, housing trends, and other important market indicators. Use the category filters to browse relevant economic and mortgage news, then select an article to read the full update. Review the latest stories and market insights to better understand changing conditions when considering your mortgage options.
RATE WATCH
FED FUNDS RATE 3.88%
NEXT FOMC 10/28/2026
NEXT MOVE 28.4% HIKE
IMPLIED CHANGE +7.1 bps
12-MONTH OUTLOOK +83.0 bps 3-4 HIKES
TARGET BAND 3.75 - 4.00%
SOFR 3.89%
LATEST FED UPDATE 10/6/2026

What Today’s Economic Data Can Mean for Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates can respond to changes in inflation, employment, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, and expectations about future economic growth. These factors do not determine mortgage rates by themselves, but they can influence the broader bond market and the pricing lenders offer.

For homebuyers and homeowners, the important question is not simply whether economic news is “good” or “bad.” The key is how new information changes expectations for inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Those changes can contribute to mortgage rate movement and affect purchasing power, refinance opportunities, and monthly payment estimates.

Use the market updates below as supporting information, then consider your specific loan type, credit profile, property, and financing goals when evaluating current mortgage options.

Economic News Hub

Real Estate & Financial Market Updates

Article
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels

Firms’ Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano Businesses experienced substantial cost pressures in 2025 as the cost of insurance and utilities rose sharply, while an increase in tariffs contributed…
Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth?

Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth?

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano Employer-sponsored health insurance represents a substantial component of total compensation paid by firms to many workers in the United States. Such costs…
What’s Driving Rising Business Costs?

What’s Driving Rising Business Costs?

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano After a period of moderating cost increases, businesses faced mounting cost pressures in 2025. While tariffs played a role in driving up…
The Post‑Pandemic Global R*

The Post‑Pandemic Global R*

Marco Del Negro, Elena Elbarmi, and Michael Pham In this post we provide a measure of “global” r* using data on short- and long-term yields and inflation for several countries…
Estimating the Term Structure of Corporate Bond Risk Premia

Estimating the Term Structure of Corporate Bond Risk Premia

Tomas Jankauskas Understanding how short- and long-term assets are priced is one of the fundamental questions in finance. The term structure of risk premia allows us to perform net present…
What Workplace Composition Are Job Candidates Looking For?

What Workplace Composition Are Job Candidates Looking For?

Rachel Schuh Why do workers still segregate by sex across occupations, industries, and firms? Recent research has focused on how preferences for job amenities, like flexibility, may differ by sex….
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data

Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data

Martin Almuzara and Geert Mesters Data releases for inflation have been scarce over the past four months due to the government shutdown. As a result, until January 22 no personal…
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?

Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this…
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Repo market word cloud featuring liquidity, securities, collateral, and Federal Reserve terms

Follow the Cash! Microstructure of Repo Markets

The repo market in the U.S. is a mosaic of segments with distinct participants and various settlement and clearing practices. Why do large cash lenders typically settle their trades through a third-party agent? Why does the interdealer market clear through a central counterparty? Why do levered investors favor bilateral trades? In the second post of this series, we follow the cash as it navigates through repo markets to better understand the costs and benefits that shape the existing market structures.
 

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Bond-specific weakness graphic with falling 10-year yield chart and oil pumpjack

Bond-Specific Weakness

Bond-Specific Weakness

Over the past 6 months, as bonds continued to sell off, there was frequently some solace in the fact that the rate spike correlated with oil or diesel prices enough to hope that an oil price recovery would pave the way for a rate recovery. While there’s likely still some benefit for bonds from a large, sustained drop in oil prices, the broader disconnect is increasingly conspicuous. Today was the latest example. Yields appeared to track with oil on the way up (for the most part). But when oil reversed course and moved back to ‘unchanged’ on the day, bond yields were still almost 5bps higher day-over-day. There was nothing new and specific that continued driving this narrative today. Dallas Fed data may have played a small role, and we also wouldn’t rule out month/quarter-end trading at this time of year, but there’s no way to confirm that. 

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 5.209

11:03 AM MBS down more than 5/8ths and 10yr up 10.5bps at 5.266

04:06 PM MBS down 5/8ths and 10yr up 7.3bps at 5.234

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Mortgage rates daily index showing 30-year fixed rate at 7.58%

Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 7.5%

Despite Friday afternoon’s promising bond market rally and mortgage rate improvement, today’s top tier 30yr fixed rate bounced back up. The average lender is now at 7.50% for the first time since April 30, 2024.  While there’s been a lot of short-term correlation between oil prices and interest rates over the last 6 months, oil does a poor job of explaining much of the recent upward momentum in rates. At times today, it seemed that the higher rates coincided with higher oil prices, but oil fell all the way back to Friday afternoon’s levels at one point while rates remained elevated. The other factors are a laundry list of usual suspects: strong economic data, anxiety regarding incoming data being stronger as well, supply/demand issues in the Treasury market, elevated bond market supply in general, etc. That said, there weren’t any major new developments for that laundry list today.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

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Seller disclosure checklist beside house keys and a suburban home

What Do You Have To Disclose When Selling a House

If you’re preparing to sell, you may be asking yourself, what do you have to disclose when selling a house? From structural damage and past repairs to environmental hazards, this guide explains your obligations, state-specific rules, and practical tips to avoid legal trouble and build buyer trust.

The post What Do You Have To Disclose When Selling a House appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More.

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What is a Semi-Custom Home? How it Differs From Custom and Spec Homes

What is a Semi-Custom Home? How it Differs From Custom and Spec Homes

A white house with a pathway leading up to the front door. The owner might be wondering whether they should sell to an iBuyer.

If you’re looking for a new construction home, you may come across terms like semi-custom, custom, and spec home. While all three involve new construction, the amount of choice you have over the home’s design, finishes, layout, and features can vary significantly. A semi-custom home gives buyers some flexibility to personalize a builder’s existing plans, […]

The post What is a Semi-Custom Home? How it Differs From Custom and Spec Homes appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More.

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