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Mortgage Rate Intelligence & Market Updates

Stay informed about economic developments that may influence mortgage rates and home financing decisions. Explore updates covering inflation, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, housing trends, and other important market indicators. Use the category filters to browse relevant economic and mortgage news, then select an article to read the full update. Review the latest stories and market insights to better understand changing conditions when considering your mortgage options.
RATE WATCH
FED FUNDS RATE 3.88%
NEXT FOMC 10/28/2026
NEXT MOVE 28.4% HIKE
IMPLIED CHANGE +7.1 bps
12-MONTH OUTLOOK +83.0 bps 3-4 HIKES
TARGET BAND 3.75 - 4.00%
SOFR 3.89%
LATEST FED UPDATE 10/6/2026

What Today’s Economic Data Can Mean for Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates can respond to changes in inflation, employment, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, and expectations about future economic growth. These factors do not determine mortgage rates by themselves, but they can influence the broader bond market and the pricing lenders offer.

For homebuyers and homeowners, the important question is not simply whether economic news is “good” or “bad.” The key is how new information changes expectations for inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Those changes can contribute to mortgage rate movement and affect purchasing power, refinance opportunities, and monthly payment estimates.

Use the market updates below as supporting information, then consider your specific loan type, credit profile, property, and financing goals when evaluating current mortgage options.

Economic News Hub

Real Estate & Financial Market Updates

Article
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels

Firms’ Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano Businesses experienced substantial cost pressures in 2025 as the cost of insurance and utilities rose sharply, while an increase in tariffs contributed…
Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth?

Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth?

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano Employer-sponsored health insurance represents a substantial component of total compensation paid by firms to many workers in the United States. Such costs…
What’s Driving Rising Business Costs?

What’s Driving Rising Business Costs?

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Nick Montalbano After a period of moderating cost increases, businesses faced mounting cost pressures in 2025. While tariffs played a role in driving up…
The Post‑Pandemic Global R*

The Post‑Pandemic Global R*

Marco Del Negro, Elena Elbarmi, and Michael Pham In this post we provide a measure of “global” r* using data on short- and long-term yields and inflation for several countries…
Estimating the Term Structure of Corporate Bond Risk Premia

Estimating the Term Structure of Corporate Bond Risk Premia

Tomas Jankauskas Understanding how short- and long-term assets are priced is one of the fundamental questions in finance. The term structure of risk premia allows us to perform net present…
What Workplace Composition Are Job Candidates Looking For?

What Workplace Composition Are Job Candidates Looking For?

Rachel Schuh Why do workers still segregate by sex across occupations, industries, and firms? Recent research has focused on how preferences for job amenities, like flexibility, may differ by sex….
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data

Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data

Martin Almuzara and Geert Mesters Data releases for inflation have been scarce over the past four months due to the government shutdown. As a result, until January 22 no personal…
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?

Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this…
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Mortgage Rates Rise to 7.58%

Mortgage rates moved higher again on Tuesday as the bond market continues recalibrating expectations for Fed policy, economic growth, and inflation. The weakness is especially frustrating considering a fairly large drop in oil prices today, but as we discussed yesterday, rates have a lot more on their mind than oil these days. Our top-tier 30yr fixed rate index rose from 7.50 to 7.58% today–the highest since November 1st, 2023. In this sense, mortgage rates are doing much better than their often-cited benchmark, the 10yr Treasury yield, which is the highest level since 2007. That’s because mortgage rates are directly based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and not U.S. Treasuries, and MBS have been outperforming Treasuries relative to 2023’s levels. Today’s economic data didn’t offer meaningful relief although it wasn’t a driver of today’s upward pressure. We’re seeing more and more evidence that at least some of that pressure has to do with factors such as the quarter-end trading environment which transcends news headlines and economic reports. This doesn’t necessarily mean that rate momentum will reverse on October 1st, but the month could at least restore a more logical relationship between typical causes and effects.

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