Mortgage rates can respond to changes in inflation, employment, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, and expectations about future economic growth. These factors do not determine mortgage rates by themselves, but they can influence the broader bond market and the pricing lenders offer.
For homebuyers and homeowners, the important question is not simply whether economic news is “good” or “bad.” The key is how new information changes expectations for inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Those changes can contribute to mortgage rate movement and affect purchasing power, refinance opportunities, and monthly payment estimates.
Use the market updates below as supporting information, then consider your specific loan type, credit profile, property, and financing goals when evaluating current mortgage options.
Real Estate & Financial Market Updates
Planning to move somewhere new? If so, the climate may be a big factor. Check out the 10 coldest cities in the U.S. to help you decide.
The post The 10 Coldest Cities in the U.S. appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More.
Planning to move somewhere new? If so, the climate is likely a big factor. To help, check out our list of the ten snowiest cities in the U.S.
The post The 10 Snowiest Cities in the U.S., Ranked appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More.
In past work, we showed that trading in U.S. Treasury securities is becoming increasingly concentrated on the last trading day of each month. In this post, we show that trading is also becoming more concentrated around the designated pricing, or “strike,” times for fixed-income indexes. The concentration is especially pronounced on month-end trading days. We also document a marked shift in trading activity from around 3 p.m. (ET) to around 4 p.m. after a major fixed-income index provider moved its strike time from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. in January 2021.
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2026. The New York Fed DSGE model expects similar growth, and slightly more persistent inflation, compared to its forecasts in June. r* forecasts are slightly lower for 2026 but higher for the remainder of the forecast horizon.
After rampant fraud in Baltimore made headlines, underwriting guidelines and elevated fraud risks have the market on high alert
Mortgage spreads continue to soften the blow amid Iran conflict
Derivative suit cites $100 million deal, $81 million in insider sales claims, and a stock drop from $77.05 to $32.19
AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close
This morning’s paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turned around at exactly 9am and proceeded to completely erase the AM gains. There were no compelling macro motivations for the reversal apart from a modest rise in oil prices. While oil price lows and highs perfectly matched bond yields in terms of timing, the bond selling was disproportionately larger. This is highly suggestive of short covering being a component of the morning rally. In other words, traders who had open bets on higher rates simply closed those positions quickly this morning. From that point on, the market was free to trade as it pleased. 2yr/10yr spreads remained mostly flat which suggests broad selling across the curve and no change in the paradoxical sentiment component of the AM rally. Bottom line: there were two rally motivations this morning, and one of them left the bond market open to correction.
Econ Data / Events
m/m CORE CPI (Aug)
0.3% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0.2% prev
m/m Headline CPI (Aug)
0.4% vs 0.4% f’cast, 0.1% prev
y/y CORE CPI (Aug)
2.4% vs 2.4% f’cast, 2.5% prev
y/y Headline CPI (Aug)
3.4% vs 3.4% f’cast, 3.4% prev
Market Movement Recap
08:45 AM 2 way trading after CPI. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.947
12:45 PM Off best levels. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) after being up 3/8ths earlier this morning. 10yr still down 1.8bps at 4.947 but up from lows of 4.904.
03:50 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.97
Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning’s levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher–a small enough move to be effectively considered “unchanged.” This expanded to 0.05% in the last few hours as multiple lenders increased rates. In terms of big-picture benchmarks, the increase officially brings rates to their highest levels since early 2025. To be clear, we were just barely lower than May 2025 levels yesterday. Now we’re in line February 2025 levels. The intraday market movement was interesting. The bond market (which underlies mortgage rate movement) actually improved this morning even though Fed rate hike expectations increased following a slightly hotter inflation reading in this morning’s economic data. This is an uncommon pattern. There are two ways to look at it. First, longer-term rates may have been encouraged by the uptick in Fed rate hike expectations because that provided reassurance that Fed was more likely to take steps to combat higher inflation. In other words, some of the upward pressure in longer-term rates is thought to have been driven by fear of Fed inaction. If this morning’s inflation data was hot enough to increase the odds of action, but not so hot as to cause a material change in the inflation outlook, it’s the perfectly warm bowl of porridge. In OTHER other words, yes! There’s a scenario where longer-term rates (things like mortgages and 5-10yr Treasury yields) actually WANT the shortest-term rates (like the Fed Funds Rate) to move higher.
