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Mortgage Rate Intelligence & Market Updates

Stay informed about economic developments that may influence mortgage rates and home financing decisions. Explore updates covering inflation, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, housing trends, and other important market indicators. Use the category filters to browse relevant economic and mortgage news, then select an article to read the full update. Review the latest stories and market insights to better understand changing conditions when considering your mortgage options.
RATE WATCH
FED FUNDS RATE 3.88%
NEXT FOMC 10/28/2026
NEXT MOVE 28.4% HIKE
IMPLIED CHANGE +7.1 bps
12-MONTH OUTLOOK +81.7 bps 3 or 4 hikes
TARGET BAND 3.75 - 4.00%
SOFR 3.87%
LATEST FED UPDATE 10/5/2026

What Today’s Economic Data Can Mean for Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates can respond to changes in inflation, employment, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, and expectations about future economic growth. These factors do not determine mortgage rates by themselves, but they can influence the broader bond market and the pricing lenders offer.

For homebuyers and homeowners, the important question is not simply whether economic news is “good” or “bad.” The key is how new information changes expectations for inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Those changes can contribute to mortgage rate movement and affect purchasing power, refinance opportunities, and monthly payment estimates.

Use the market updates below as supporting information, then consider your specific loan type, credit profile, property, and financing goals when evaluating current mortgage options.

Economic News Hub

Real Estate & Financial Market Updates

Article
New York Fed EHIs Reveal Small Business Struggles

New York Fed EHIs Reveal Small Business Struggles

Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar The New York Fed’s Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) aim to study macroeconomic outcomes experienced by various groups of people and businesses. We recently added a suite of indicators describing the performance…
A New Dataset for Consumer Spending in the New York Fed EHIs

A New Dataset for Consumer Spending in the New York Fed EHIs

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, and Maxim L. Pinkovskiy We are enhancing our set of Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) by adding a set of metrics on consumer spending with…
Understating Rising Quality Means Import Price Inflation Is Overstated

Understating Rising Quality Means Import Price Inflation Is Overstated

Danial Lashkari It is common for price measures to consider changes in quality. That is, a price index might fall even though listed prices are unchanged because the quality of…
Disability in the Labor Market: Earnings

Disability in the Labor Market: Earnings

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, and Maxim L. Pinkovskiy In our previous post we learned that, in general, people with disabilities participate in the labor market at significantly lower…
Disability in the Labor Market: Employment and Participation

Disability in the Labor Market: Employment and Participation

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, and Maxim L. Pinkovskiy Among people in prime working age (25-54), around 7 percent have a disability of some kind. In this set of…
Measuring Labor Market Tightness: Data Update and New Web Feature

Measuring Labor Market Tightness: Data Update and New Web Feature

Sebastian Heise, Jeremy Pearce, and Jacob P. Weber Good measures of labor market tightness are essential to predict wage inflation and to calibrate monetary policy. In an October 2024 post,…
What Is a Carbon Tariff and Why Is the EU Imposing One?

What Is a Carbon Tariff and Why Is the EU Imposing One?

Pierre Coster, Julian di Giovanni, and Isabelle Mejean The European Union has been an early adopter of carbon policies, with the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) in…
What Can Undermine a Carbon Tax?

What Can Undermine a Carbon Tax?

Pierre Coster, Julian di Giovanni, and Isabelle Mejean Several countries have implemented a carbon tax or cap-and-trade system to establish high carbon prices and create a disincentive for the use…
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The Role of Repos in Monetary Policy Implementation

The Role of Repos in Monetary Policy Implementation

In the first two posts of this three-part series, we discussed private market participants that are active in repo markets for profit-making motives. Central banks are also active repo market participants, but their reasons often differ from those of private participants. In today’s post, we discuss how central banks use repos to manage liquidity in the financial system and implement monetary policy.

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Financial market analysis scene with bond news, laptop chart, and interest rate indicators

Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped

Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped

Bonds spent the first half of the day pressing into even weaker levels in spite of a respectable drop in oil prices. Data and headlines had little to no bearing on the selling. If anything, the biggest scapegoat is the combination of bearish momentum and quarter-end trading (something we’re extrapolating from the mirror-image correlation between stocks and bond yields). 10yr yields crested 5.29% at their weakest levels–right in line with the only obvious nearby technical level from 2007. Bearishness reversed at 2pm when Fed Gov Williams said he didn’t see a need for urgency after the September rate hike. Fed Funds Futures rallied quickly and the entire yield curve (apart from 30yr bonds) ended up making it back to positive territory by the close. 

Econ Data / Events

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jul)

2.5% vs 2.2% f’cast, 2.1% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jul)

0.3% vs 0.1% f’cast, 0% prev

CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)

81.9 vs 89.2 f’cast, 89.4 prev

USA JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)

7.079M vs 7.23M f’cast, 7.271M prev

Market Movement Recap

08:58 AM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down less than 1bp at 5.231

10:05 AM Heavy selling between 9:30am and 10am. Bouncing modestly after 10am data. MBS down over an eighth and 10yr up 1.1bps at 5.25

02:26 PM MBS down a quarter point, but well off the weakest levels after Williams’ comments implying no urgent need for additional rate hikes. 10yr still up 2.6bps at 4.267

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