Mortgage Rate Intelligence & Market Updates

Home prices picked up a little more speed in July, as both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed stronger annual appreciation than in their previous readings. The gains remain relatively modest by historical standards, and while nominal prices are still moving higher nationally, the picture looks considerably less impressive after accounting for inflation. The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% from June to July, bringing the annual increase to 2.6% . While the national market is still technically appreciating, there’s more and more variation between different metro areas with some holding steady or even contracting. Case-Shiller tells a similar story, though its national measure is running at a somewhat slower pace. The U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.9% year over year in July, up from 1.6% in June. The 10-City Composite increased 3.4% , while the 20-City Composite was up 2.5% . The annual price appreciation chart shows a nice little uptick, but the takeaway is tempered in inflation-adjusted terms. Both of the big U.S. inflation reports showed annual changes of 3.4% last month, and even higher in July (the month that lines up with these home price reports). Any way you slice it, that means home prices aren’t keeping pace with broader inflation. Whether or not that’s a bad thing is another story. Some would say it wouldn’t be the end of the world for prices to merely hold steady and allow income growth to slowly chip away at affordability. 

Student-athletes receive mentoring and complete requirements to become licensed real estate referral agents

Mortgage rates rose 0.04% today to an index value of 7.57% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario for the average lender today. That uptick in and of itself isn’t especially large, but it’s a bit counterintuitive on a day where the hotly anticipated jobs report came in much weaker than expected.  The jobs report has 2 key components: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate. For most of the time any rate watcher can remember, NFP matters way more. The market still reacts to it (which is why bonds initially improved this morning), but unemployment has arguably taken the lead in terms of accurately capturing labor market trends. Even then, today’s unemployment rate of 4.2% (up from 4.1% last month) shouldn’t have been a problem. The catch was that the unrounded numbers made the gap even smaller (4.175% vs 4.141%). Additionally, more people entered the labor force. If the labor force had held steady with last month, today’s unemployment rate would have been 3.951%. None of those numbers is particularly troubling for the employment outlook, but 3.951% especially so. That helped explain why bonds eventually gave back their early gains, along with a rebound in oil prices and easing concerns about European bond markets that had helped U.S. rates move lower yesterday. When bond gains evaporate, mortgage lenders may be forced to raise rates during the day. This happened on multiple occasions. The average lender was actually slightly lower at first, but ultimately ended higher compared to Thursday’s latest levels. 

The operational signals that show strain before the leaderboard does

Rising prices alongside weaker sales and closed listing ecosystems are reducing consumer visibility and competition

September endorsements dropped to 1,790 — the lowest figure since April 2020 — while HMBS issuance fell to $446 million

A jobs miss sent the 10-year yield to as low as 5.17% before yields rose higher toward 5.28%

Data shows a small fraction of lenders capturing most new production as LOs shift to brokerage and correspondent platforms

New team additions posted $180 million in the past 12 months, the RealTrends Verified brokerage reported